By: Dr. Lynn Reaser
Although the election is only about a week away, no one is talking about the economic impact and the stock market does not seem to be overly interested in the latest poll results. Could the implications be more significant than what are generally now thought?
The answer is probably “no.” Even if Republicans gain a majority in the Senate, they will lack the two-thirds count necessary to override a presidential veto or the 60 votes to block a filibuster against bringing key legislative items to the floor. The year ahead is likely to be another period of gridlock, preventing key legislation on tax reform, immigration, and long-term efforts to reduce the growth of entitlement spending and the growth of the nation’s debt. Congress will be pressed to even pass a budget for fiscal year 2014-15 (which started on October 1) by early spring. Political capital will likely be primarily focused on the 2016 presidential election in the year ahead.
This analysis should by no means be construed as reducing the importance of voting next Tuesday. One should just not expect to see any large effects, at least in the short term.